Estimating Tsunami-Induced Building Damage through Fragility Functions: Critical Review and Research Needs

Tsunami damage, fragility, and vulnerability functions are statistical models that provide an estimate of expected damage or losses due to tsunami. They allow for quantification of risk, and so are a vital component of catastrophe models used for human and financial loss estimation, and for land-use and emergency planning. This paper collates and reviews the currently available tsunami fragility functions in order to highlight the current limitations, outline significant advances in this field, make recommendations for model derivation, and propose key areas for further research. Existing functions are first presented, and then key issues are identified in the current literature for each of the model components: building damage data (the response variable of the statistical model), tsunami intensity data (the explanatory variable), and the statistical model that links the two. Finally, recommendations are made regarding areas for future research and current best practices in deriving tsunami fragility functions (see Discussion, Recommendations, and Future Research). The information presented in this paper may be used to assess the quality of current estimations (both based on the quality of the data, and the quality of the models and methods adopted) and to adopt best practice when developing new fragility functions

Empirical fragility assessment of buildings affected by the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami using improved statistical models

Tsunamis are destructive natural phenomena which cause extensive damage to the built environment, affecting the livelihoods and economy of the impacted nations. This has been demonstrated by the tragic events of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, or the Great East Japan tsunami in 2011. Following such events, a few studies have attempted to assess the fragility of the existing building inventory by constructing empirical stochastic functions, which relate the damage to a measure of tsunami intensity. However, these studies typically fit a linear statistical model to the available damage data, which are aggregated in bins of similar levels of tsunami intensity. This procedure, however, cannot deal well with aggregated data, low and high damage probabilities, nor does it result in the most realistic representation of the tsunami-induced damage. Deviating from this trend, the present study adopts the more realistic generalised linear models which address the aforementioned disadvantages. The proposed models are fitted to the damage database, containing 178,448 buildings surveyed in the aftermath of the 2011 Japanese tsunami, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism in Japan. In line with the results obtained in previous studies, the fragility curves show that wooden buildings (the dominant construction type in Japan) are the least resistant against tsunami loading. The diagnostics show that taking into account both the building’s construction type and the tsunami flow depth is crucial to the quality of the damage estimation and that these two variables do not act independently. In addition, the diagnostics reveal that tsunami flow depth estimates low levels of damage reasonably well; however, it is not the most representative measure of intensity of the tsunami for high damage states (especially structural damage). Further research using disaggregated damage data and additional explanatory variables is required in order to obtain reliable model estimations of building damage probability

New tsunami runup relationships based on long wave experiments

Tsunami are propagating waves characterized by long wavelengths and large amplitudes close to the shore. They may also have a profile characterised by a large trough preceding the positive wave. These waves are destructive, causing severe damage to structures and human casualties when they reach coastal areas (e.g., Indian Ocean, 2004; Japan, 2011). Runup is a local characteristic of a wave flow inland and this measure, easily identifiable in the field, is extensively used as an indicator of tsunami inundation and impact on the coast. In this paper, an innovative large scale experimental programme is applied to develop runup equations for long propagating waves. A pneumatic generator with a controlled valve system, capable of exchanging large volumes of water with the propagation flume is used. This novel generation system allows waves to be generated that have much larger wavelengths than those experimentally reproduced to date. Moreover, it enables leading depressed waves to be stably generated and analysed for the first time. To analyse the influence of wavelength and wave shape on runup, the experimental data was partitioned into groups classified by wave period T/TbT/Tb (where TbTb is the travel time of a linear wave along the length of the beach) and wave shape (elevated or N-waves). In this paper, elevated waves refer to waves of translation having a single positive elevation above mean water level, and N-waves refer to waves of translation comprising both a negative elevation (below mean water level) and a positive elevation. Dimensional analysis (using experimentally determined wavelength, potential energy and wave amplitudes) was applied to identify correlated measures. A statistical analysis was used to determine a power law relationship between runup and measures of the waveform, and to test the significance of the power law hypothesis. The experimental results show how both the wavelength and wave shape influence the runup distance. For View the MathML sourceTTb1, it scales as View the MathML sourceR∼a

GRP78 as a marker of pre-eclampsia: an exploratory study

Although the exact mechanisms that lead to shallow invasion or defective trophoblastic differentiation in pre-eclampsia are still unknown, it is widely admitted that the etiology of pre-eclampsia is a defect in trophoblast invasion of the uterine spiral arteries. We have previously observed that the status of a chaperone protein, glucose regulated protein 78 (GRP78) is associated with the invasive properties of cytotrophoblastic cells; we therefore hypothesized that circulating GRP78 could serve as a diagnostic tool in pre-eclampsia. In a prospective case-control study, we quantified GRP78 autoantibodies, complexes of GRP78 with autoantibodies and GRP78 (C-term fragment, N-term fragment and full-length GRP78) by ELISA. Plasma from women diagnosed with pre-eclampsia (n = 16), from women during the first trimester of pregnancy who subsequently developed pre-eclampsia (n = 10) and from healthy pregnant women (controls, n = 58 at term, n = 26 at first trimester) were analysed and compared. We observed no significant difference between pre-eclamptic and healthy pregnant women for autoantibodies-GRP78 complexes or total GRP78 at both first trimester and at delivery. In contrast, the ratio of C-terminal GRP78 over full length GRP78 was significantly different in plasma of pre-eclamptic patients as compared with controls both during first trimester (P < 0.004) and at term (P < 0.0001). Our findings suggest that circulating C-terminal GRP78 reflect the invasive properties of cells, and could be used as a predictive marker for pre-eclampsia early in pregnanc

Redox Polypharmacology as an Emerging Strategy to Combat Malarial Parasites

© 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim3-Benzylmenadiones are potent antimalarial agents that are thought to act through their 3-benzoylmenadione metabolites as redox cyclers of two essential targets: the NADPH-dependent glutathione reductases (GRs) of Plasmodium-parasitized erythrocytes and methemoglobin. Their physicochemical properties were characterized in a coupled assay using both targets and modeled with QSPR predictive tools built in house. The substitution pattern of the west/east aromatic parts that controls the oxidant character of the electrophore was highlighted and accurately predicted by QSPR models. The effects centered on the benz(o)yl chain, induced by drug bioactivation, markedly influenced the oxidant character of the reduced species through a large anodic shift of the redox potentials that correlated with the redox cycling of both targets in the coupled assay. Our approach demonstrates that the antimalarial activity of 3-benz(o)ylmenadiones results from a subtle interplay between bioactivation, fine-tuned redox properties, and interactions with crucial targets of P. falciparum. Plasmodione and its analogues give emphasis to redox polypharmacology, which constitutes an innovative approach to antimalarial therapy

Redox Polypharmacology as an Emerging Strategy to Combat Malarial Parasites

© 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.3-Benzylmenadiones are potent antimalarial agents that are thought to act through their 3-benzoylmenadione metabolites as redox cyclers of two essential targets: the NADPH-dependent glutathione reductases (GRs) of Plasmodium-parasitized erythrocytes and methemoglobin. Their physicochemical properties were characterized in a coupled assay using both targets and modeled with QSPR predictive tools built in house. The substitution pattern of the west/east aromatic parts that controls the oxidant character of the electrophore was highlighted and accurately predicted by QSPR models. The effects centered on the benz(o)yl chain, induced by drug bioactivation, markedly influenced the oxidant character of the reduced species through a large anodic shift of the redox potentials that correlated with the redox cycling of both targets in the coupled assay. Our approach demonstrates that the antimalarial activity of 3-benz(o)ylmenadiones results from a subtle interplay between bioactivation, fine-tuned redox properties, and interactions with crucial targets of P.falciparum. Plasmodione and its analogues give emphasis to redox polypharmacology, which constitutes an innovative approach to antimalarial therapy